I told you to buy Saquon Barkley, and I'm not making that call twice

Nine days ago I told you to buy Saquon Barkley before the Eagles put out their first injury report. If you listened, I owe you an honest accounting, because he's cheaper today than he was then and I still wouldn't send that offer.

Here's what happened after I wrote it. Barkley had played 10 snaps in the Monday night loss to Dallas, the game he left with the back injury. He missed the first two practices last week, got limited work Friday and played 22 snaps Sunday night against Washington, per ProFootballTalk. Then on Wednesday, as Philadelphia started its week before the Giants, he didn't practice at all. The report listed hamstring and back, the same two problems that came out of that Dallas game.

My bet was simple. Nobody knew how bad it was, and that's the only time a back like Barkley goes on sale. Where I went wrong was the order the news would show up in. I wrote that a missed Wednesday practice was the one result that would get you a better price, and I treated it like the long shot. It's the result we got, two Wednesdays in a row.

So why not take the lower price now? Because the discount means something different. On Oct. 27 his price was low because his owner was rattled and nobody had any information. Today it's low because we do have information, and all of it points one way. Ten snaps and 22 snaps are backup numbers. Paying for uncertainty can be smart. Paying for a trend is how you end up explaining yourself in the league chat in December.

The case for doubling down is real, so let's give it room. ProFootballTalk points out he sat the first two days last week and played anyway, which could just be how the Eagles handle him now. If he's limited Friday and plays Sunday, whoever bought this morning looks sharp. Fine. But playing is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Twenty-two snaps won't carry a lineup in a contract league, and he won't get much help. Joe Milton starts Sunday after Tanner McKee went 0-3 as the starter, and DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are both on track to miss a third straight game. That's a thin offense to hang on a back who can't practice.

If you own him, I'm not telling you to dump him either. Selling this week means selling at the bottom, probably to a league-mate quoting my last column back at you. Check the years on his deal. On a one-year contract he's a weekly lineup call and nothing more, and I'd keep him on the bench unless he gets real work on the field Thursday or Friday. On a longer deal, the hamstring and back questions will still be there in the offseason, and so will a buyer. Neither has to be settled in a Thursday trade.

I priced the next piece of news like a coin flip on Oct. 27, and a back who hurt two things in one night was never a coin flip. That one's on me. If you bought on my word, be patient with him. And don't let anybody, me included, sell you a second helping.

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