If you're waiting for Klint Kubiak to name Fernando Mendoza the starter before you make an offer, you've already decided to pay more for him. Make it this week, while the only thing on the record is a coach saying he's thinking about everything.
That's roughly what Kubiak said after Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams, the Raiders' fourth straight. Asked about the No. 1 pick, he talked about the red zone, the third quarter, personnel and scheme, and said they'd go watch the film. He didn't name a Week 8 starter. ESPN wrote it up Monday as Las Vegas evaluating everything, Mendoza over Kirk Cousins included. The door's open. Nobody has walked through it.
The Mendoza crowd skips one thing, though. Cousins isn't the one losing these games. He threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns Sunday with a 94.4 rating after a rough first half, and he was pressured 19 times doing it. Through seven games he has a league-leading 16 touchdown passes and five interceptions. ESPN has the defense allowing 35.8 points a game since Week 4, the Rams ran for 199 yards, and the Raiders haven't reached 100 rushing yards since Week 3. Kubiak said it plainly: you can't win in this league throwing as much as they are.
That's exactly why I'd buy. A switch at 3-4 wouldn't be a verdict on how Cousins is playing. It would be a call about where the franchise is headed, and that kind of call doesn't need Cousins to play badly first. Cousins said when he signed in April that he doesn't want to be out there if he isn't the best option, and he repeated it Sunday. He isn't going to make this hard for anybody.
The honest case against me is ugly, and it deserves the room. Mendoza has played once, going 6 of 8 for 48 yards late in the Week 5 loss to New England. Put a rookie behind a line that let a veteran get pressured 19 times, with no running game, and his first starts could look rough. If they do, his price drops, and the patient manager picks him up in a few weeks for less than you'd pay today. I've told plenty of people to wait one more day. I usually mean it.
Not this time, because the order of events works against you. The discount for a bad start only shows up if he starts, and the announcement comes first. The morning it lands, everybody in your league reads the same headline and your offer gets a counteroffer. And remember what you're actually buying: a Heisman winner taken first overall, on a rookie contract you control for years under your league's rules. One shaky November doesn't touch that. A coach's maybe is the cheapest he'll be.
