I told you Wednesday to bid on Brandon Aiyuk for one year and a salary you'd forget by Thanksgiving. I'm not walking that back. I'm changing the price, because Thursday night's reporting changed the deal.
NFL Network's Tom Pelissero says Aiyuk owes the 49ers roughly $13 million in bonus forfeiture, and that the NFL Management Council and the NFL Players Association are both in the middle of it. Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area put the same number against the $23 million signing bonus from Aiyuk's 2024 extension and wrote that a clean split on Friday looks unlikely. The team's NBC Sports account echoed the figure. Drew Rosenhaus told Adam Schefter the meeting is still on for 3 p.m. ET at the facility. Showing up was supposed to force a decision. The clawback just gave San Francisco a reason to slow-walk the paperwork.
That's why I'm revisiting the column. On Wednesday the discount was "nobody knows where he'll play." Today the discount is "nobody knows when he gets cut, or what he has to settle first." Those are different risks. The first one expires the day he lands somewhere. The second one can sit in arbitration while your roster spot ages.
I'm still fine with a one-year flier at a small salary. I'm not fine with you raising your bid because Friday looks dramatic on your timeline. Drama isn't snaps. If anything, shave the offer. A short deal only works if you can cut him without feeling stupid. Paying up because your league-mate is excited about a 3 p.m. meeting is how managers turn a flier into a sunk cost.
The football case hasn't improved overnight. He still hasn't played since the October 2024 knee injury against Kansas City. The 49ers still voided about $27 million in guarantees in July 2025 over rehab and check-in issues. Kyle Shanahan already said no once this season when the receiver room was banged up. John Lynch told KNBR this is a unique situation with no playbook and that the club is working with the Management Council. Believe him. Unique situations are where deadlines slip.
If you already own him, don't panic-sell into Thursday's mess either. Every offer you get today will price the arbitration risk, not the player. Wait until there's an actual release or a trade. If you're bidding from free agency, keep it short and cheap, and admit out loud that Friday might produce a meeting and nothing else.
