Brian Thomas Jr. isn't a Chief yet, so stop paying like he is

Brian Thomas Jr. isn't a Kansas City Chief, and nobody in your league should be paying for him like he is. ProFootballTalk said late Sunday night that the Chiefs, Steelers and Commanders all have interest in the Jaguars receiver. I'd bet somebody in your league has already pictured him catching passes from Patrick Mahomes and opened the trade screen.

Read the rest of that same post, though. Jacksonville hasn't shown much inclination to move him, even if Thomas would prefer a fresh start. That's the part the dreamers skip, and it isn't new. Tom Pelissero wrote Saturday that the Jaguars have been fending off calls on Thomas for more than a year, and a deadline roundup Underdog shared the same day had them firm on keeping him. A team that's said no for a year, and that just beat the Colts 42-7 with Thomas scoring the first touchdown, doesn't owe anybody a yes by Nov. 10.

The other side deserves a fair hearing, because it's a good one. Pelissero also wrote that Thomas's recent benching and ongoing struggles have raised belief around the league that Jacksonville moves him by the deadline. Ian Rapoport named Thomas and Josh Downs as players to watch for a Chiefs move. Adam Schefter had him on Sunday's list of receivers tied to the market, next to Downs, Jauan Jennings, Jerry Jeudy and Calvin Ridley. There's smoke. I just don't pay for smoke.

Here's the distinction I care about. There are two prices for Thomas this week. One is the benching price: a former first-round pick whose own team sat him, with the struggles on the record. The other is the trade price, which is the same player plus a guess about a quarterback, a target share and a team that wants him. Only the first one is real. Remember too that his RSO contract doesn't move when he does. Same salary, same years, wherever he lands, so the only thing a rumor changes is what your league-mates think he's worth.

If you're buying, pay the benching price and walk away from anything above it. I've sat through enough deadline-week meetings to know a rumor always sounds closest right before it dies. If the Jaguars keep him, you didn't overpay for a receiver his team has already shown it'll bench. If they move him, wonderful, you got the discount you were supposed to get.

If you own him, this is where I part ways with the sit-tight crowd. Holding is right against a lowball, and you'll get plenty of those. But if a league-mate shows up offering you a Chiefs price for a Jaguars receiver, take it. If the trade happens, you left a little on the table. If it doesn't, you sold a benched receiver at a contender's price, and I like those odds a lot better than Jacksonville's track record says you should like the alternative.

I could look silly on Nov. 11. Thomas could be in Pittsburgh with a fresh start and a full target share, and whoever paid my "Chiefs price" will make sure I hear about it. I'll take that. The manager I don't want to be is the one who paid for a trade a team has spent more than a year refusing to make, and then got to explain the benching to himself all over again.

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