The Josh Jacobs discount is a trap, because the NFL hasn't set the price yet

Somebody in your league is about to tell you Josh Jacobs is a buy-low. Don't bite. The NFL hasn't finished pricing what happened this weekend, and anybody calling it a discount is guessing at a number the league hasn't written yet.

I'll say the obvious part first. These are abuse allegations from three women, and they matter far more than anybody's roster. The roster is the only part I'm qualified to talk about, so that's what this is.

Here's what changed. Police records released Friday from Jacobs' May battery case show three women contacted police after his arrest to describe their own allegations of abuse, in incidents going back to April 2021. None of those accounts led to charges. On Saturday the league said it "will review these allegations as part of the investigation which has remained open." ESPN, NFL.com and the AP all carried that statement.

The pitch you're going to hear goes like this. Jacobs already sat six games on the Commissioner's Exempt List, ProFootballTalk notes those games would count toward any suspension, and the conduct policy's baseline for a domestic violence incident is six games. So the bill's been paid, right? That's the misread. The baseline is for an incident, and PFT points out the policy allows tougher penalties for repeat cases. The league just told you the file is still open and now has more in it. That's the opposite of a settled price.

The other side deserves a fair hearing. His attorneys called the new claims "uncorroborated, old, and previously unreported," and said the Brown County district attorney had the material for months and decided two misdemeanor charges were enough. He pleaded no contest on Sept. 10 to misdemeanor battery and criminal damage to property, not to anything in these records. And how much the older accounts can affect the outcome depends on whether the league can reach the women and get their cooperation. It's entirely possible nothing more comes of this.

That's exactly my problem with buying. "Possible" isn't a price. In a contract league you aren't buying Sunday, you're buying every remaining year on his deal, and those years now carry a risk nobody in your league can measure. Whatever your league does with a suspended player's salary, you're the one carrying it while he isn't playing. The Packers had no comment Saturday morning, and the league hasn't announced discipline or ruled him ineligible. Nobody knows anything yet, and the manager offering you a deal knows it too.

I've watched plenty of managers talk themselves into a bargain because the worst news seemed to be behind a player. Sometimes it was. The ones who got burned were the ones who paid for certainty that didn't exist yet.

If you own him and you're contending, he's active, so play him. That football question hasn't moved. The trade question has. If somebody in your league is offering a real starter's return this week, I'd take it before the league finishes reading the file, and I wouldn't spend more than pocket change to be the manager holding him when it does.

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